How Do Prices Work?

Understanding prices is the key to making money on Polymarket. Here's everything you need to know.

Price = Probability

On Polymarket, share prices represent probabilities as percentages:

YES at 65¢ = 65% chance of happening

NO at 35¢ = 35% chance of NOT happening

Important Rule:

YES price + NO price always equals $1.00 because one of them must happen.

Calculate Your Profit

YES Price

65¢

NO Price

35¢

Example: You buy 10 YES shares at 65¢ each

💵 Cost: $6.50

🎯 If Correct: $10.00 payout (10 shares × $1.00)

💰 Profit: $3.50

Why Do Prices Rise and Fall?

Prices Go Up When...

  • More people buy: High demand drives prices up
  • Good news breaks: Event becomes more likely
  • Expert predictions: Influential people change their stance

Prices Go Down When...

  • More people sell: High supply pushes prices down
  • Bad news breaks: Event becomes less likely
  • Time runs out: Deadline approaches with no movement

Pro Tip: Prices change in real-time as traders react to news. Buy when you think the market is underestimating an outcome, sell when it's overestimating.