Real-World Examples

See how trading works with detailed, step-by-step examples. Learn from winning scenarios.

Presidential Election 2024

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?

📊 Your Analysis: You think Trump has a better chance than the market believes

YES Price

45¢

Your Bet

NO Price

55¢

Step-by-Step Breakdown

  1. 1Market shows: 45% chance Trump wins (YES at 45¢)
  2. 2You disagree - you think it's closer to 60%
  3. 3You buy 100 YES shares at 45¢ each = $45 investment
  4. 4Trump wins! Each YES share pays $1.00
  5. 5You receive: 100 × $1.00 = $100
  6. 6Your profit: $100 - $45 = $55 (122% return!)

You Win!

Your prediction was correct. You profited by identifying a mispriced market.

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by end of 2025?

📊 Your Analysis: You're bearish on crypto and think it won't happen

YES Price

72¢

NO Price

28¢

Your Bet

Step-by-Step Breakdown

  1. 1Market shows: 72% chance Bitcoin hits $100k
  2. 2You think that's too optimistic, more like 40%
  3. 3You buy 50 NO shares at 28¢ each = $14 investment
  4. 4Bitcoin only reaches $85k by end of 2025
  5. 5NO wins! Each NO share pays $1.00
  6. 6You receive: 50 × $1.00 = $50
  7. 7Your profit: $50 - $14 = $36 (257% return!)

You Win!

Your prediction was correct. You profited by identifying a mispriced market.

Selling Early - Exit Strategy

Will Apple launch AR glasses in 2025?

📊 Your Analysis: You buy YES, but news changes and you want to exit

YES Price

60¢

Your Bet

NO Price

40¢

Step-by-Step Breakdown

  1. 1You buy 80 YES shares at 60¢ each = $48 investment
  2. 2Good news breaks: Apple announces AR prototype!
  3. 3YES price jumps to 85¢ (demand surges)
  4. 4You decide to lock in profits and sell your 80 shares
  5. 5You sell at 85¢: 80 × $0.85 = $68
  6. 6Your profit: $68 - $48 = $20 (42% return in days!)
  7. 7Note: You didn't wait for market resolution

Smart Exit!

You didn't wait for resolution. You sold early and locked in profits when the price moved in your favor.

🎯 Key Takeaway

You make money when your prediction is better than the market's. Find opportunities where you think the crowd is wrong, and profit from your insights.